Read more
How does this affect the situation on the battlefield?
Problems with supplies directly affect the course of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. If there is not enough kit to form an adequate number of strong homogeneous combat units and to quickly make up for losses, the AFU cannot conduct a military operation in its traditional sense – as a set of coordinated and interrelated (in terms of goals, tasks, place, and time) battles, strikes, and maneuvers, conducted simultaneously or sequentially according to a single plan in order to accomplish goals in the theater of operations, a specific operational direction, or in a certain vast area over a specified period of time.
Instead, it turns into a set of separate ‘battles for the forester’s house’, where any minor advance comes at the price of heavy casualties. For the AFU, this has been possible only because of Ukraine’s non-stop mobilization, which continuously sends people to the front (and loses them in battles).
One wonders is the West fully aware of this problem? Judging by the changing tone of Western media, it is starting to understand, but cannot bury the whole endeavor – at least for political reasons.
As a result, we see new ideas emerge, such as ‘the counteroffensive will continue this winter’, ‘next spring’, and so on. However, so long as the West doesn’t alter its strategy of military assistance to Ukraine, the AFU won’t be successful, no matter the season. Can this strategy be changed at the present moment? Not in a significant way. It could have been possible if the West had made other decisions at the very beginning of the conflict – then, in a few years, it could have expected certain results. But no one in the US-led bloc was ready to make such commitments.
Can the new supply of weapons – including fighter jets, ATACMS-type missiles and so on – change the situation at the front? The answer is no, because the problem would still persist: The provided number of weapons does not offer the AFU any advantages on the battlefield, while transferring as the necessary volumes of kit is not possible, both for organizational reasons (the training of Ukrainian troops should have started a lot earlier and been more intensive) and because it would carry a huge risk of further escalating the conflict, which the West still wants to avoid.
Why do the weapons and ammunition supplies continue?
Western countries will not stop transferring weapons to Ukraine because, among other things, military assistance has acquired a symbolic meaning, convincing others to continue the fight against “Russian aggression.” Therefore, we will likely see M1 Abrams tanks with depleted uranium shells, F-16 fighter jets, and, probably, ATACMS missiles in Ukraine. However, due to everything outlined above, this will not cause a significant shift in the balance of forces and will not ensure Kiev’s victory on the battlefield.
A certain result, nonetheless, is guaranteed – Western supplies will prolong the conflict. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine a less peace-oriented strategy.
Will this situation affect the West’s desire to negotiate? It is hard to say for sure, especially considering the upcoming election year in the United States and the political establishment’s chronic group think.
The ability of elites to convince themselves that everything is going according to plan may be inexhaustible, at least until something happens that radically and irreversibly destroys their illusions.
Source